rdwyer@fastmail.com · all
MAGA socialism?
Thu Sep 10, 2026 · 12:27 PM EDT
Polygraph Daily: your daily bear crawl through the trenches
Yesterday, Donald Trump promised a $5,000.00 "Trump Dividend," payable to every American adult if Republicans winning both houses of Congress.
Polygraph ( poly.market/5fbM82u )
Polygraph ( poly.market/2r94mPb )
Thu, Sep 10
Unsubscribe ( track.customer.io/unsubscribe/dgTlywsD…H-pzJIwQ== )
Welcome back to your daily tiptoe through the Polymarket tulips.
Get $50 free with $10 first deposit to Polymarket.us — use code POLYGFOOTBALL. Download on the App Store. ( poly.market/MTUUfa1 )
🏈 $500 → $6,765: if the Seahawks win the Big Game ( poly.market/zqmyEEa )
--------
Top news
--------
Andrew Curran on a possible U.S. ban of Chinese AI models ( poly.market/0dftbug )
Five thousand dollars
Yesterday, Donald Trump promised a $5,000.00 "Trump Dividend," payable to every American adult if Republicans winning both houses of Congress. How much did it move the odds for a GOP sweep? ( poly.market/0dftbug )
Republican Sweep Midterms? ( poly.market/0dftbug )
→ ( poly.market/0dftbug )
OSINTdefender on the Red Sea shipping ban ( poly.market/kb9aJyh )
Hike
Odds for a Fed hike in September are spiking after August inflation data came in hotter than expected this morning. ( poly.market/kb9aJyh )
September hike? ( poly.market/kb9aJyh )
→ ( poly.market/kb9aJyh )
Quick Links
Will Trump try to fire Warsh? ( poly.market/6O5Jdm0 )→ ( poly.market/6O5Jdm0 )
What will Warsh say at September press conference? ( poly.market/bguSUnV )→ ( poly.market/bguSUnV )
Andrew Curran on a possible U.S. ban of Chinese AI models ( poly.market/1rsF47S )
Pyrrhic victory
Seven months after the Super Bowl, the Seahawks got the same result over the Patriots: a win with the whole country watching. But the victory came with a cost -- starting QB Sam Darnold was lost to a hip injury 5 snaps into the game. With backup Drew Lock pressed into action for the time being, how are traders pricing the champs? ( poly.market/1rsF47S )
Check odds ( poly.market/1rsF47S )
→ ( poly.market/1rsF47S )
Big moves in odds
ODDS
Breaking News
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
51%
+6% ( poly.market/neabdvR )
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
78%
0% ( poly.market/KCyI8ng )
Brazil Presidential Election
52%
+7% ( poly.market/rYwRhDr )
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
87%
+9% ( poly.market/IEMvnh0 )
See all breaking ( poly.market/xMyyDIl )
→ ( poly.market/xMyyDIl )
BE FIRST TO TRADE
LISTED
What's New
Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
just now ( poly.market/ZOfiZAN )
50M+ — # of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?
1h ( poly.market/zlx3acT )
Texas — Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 15, 2026
3h ( poly.market/wgvUEFZ )
See all new markets ( poly.market/08YZ7Bl )
→ ( poly.market/08YZ7Bl )
MOST TRADED IN THE LAST DAY
24H VOLUME
Hot Polymarkets
25 bps increase — Fed Decision in September?
$6.2M ( poly.market/lGSbLr9 )
Marine Le Pen — Next French Presidential Election
$1.3M ( poly.market/zO8mfcF )
Flávio Bolsonaro — Brazil Presidential Election
$1.2M ( poly.market/lHG77xV )
See all hot markets ( poly.market/K348X8a )
→ ( poly.market/K348X8a )
WHERE THE SPORTS MONEY IS
ODDS
Top Sports
FC Bayern München — FC Bayern München vs. FK Bodø/Glimt
91% ( poly.market/GC5UExc )
AS Roma — Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma
51% ( poly.market/3F9qrgU )
Manchester United FC — Manchester United FC vs. Sabah FK
90% ( poly.market/hgb9ska )
Alexander Zverev — 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
51% ( poly.market/U02Y6c5 )
See all sports ( poly.market/6K98an1 )
→ ( poly.market/6K98an1 )
POWERED BY @POLY_ARCHIVE
Top comments
-----------------
Two ways to trade
-----------------
In the USA? Get Polymarket USA on iOS ( poly.market/Tb3kLLe )
Outside the US? Trade on Polymarket.com ( poly.market/LEbVOmk )
Polygraph ( poly.market/LEbVOmk )
X ( x.com/Polymarket )Discord ( discord.gg/polymarket )Instagram ( www.instagram.com/polymarket )LinkedIn ( www.linkedin.com/company/polymarket )Substack ( poly.market/YypI83J )
228 Park Ave S, PMB 750480
New York, NY 10003-1502 U.S. Polymarket U.S. (iOS app)18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.us/tos ( poly.market/gKG0kGn ) for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. Polymarket International (DeFi)Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.com/tos ( poly.market/HWsZC1D ) for more information. No longer want to receive these emails? Unsubscribe ( track.customer.io/unsubscribe/dgTlywsD…H-pzJIwQ== )