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Options for escalation

Fri Jul 24, 2026 · 07:59 AM EDT

From: Polymarket <noreply@polymarket.com>
To: rdwyer@fastmail.com

Polygraph by PolymarketPolygraph by Polymarket ( poly.market/JhAd9Ka )July 24th, 2026Unsubscribe ( track.customer.io/manage_subscription_…qSctRUog== )
Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book.

What we're watching today:

Top NewsTop news image

Escalate

Polymarket traders are increasingly confident we'll see a new wave of escalation with Iran in the next few weeks, and it's likely to involve Israel this time.

Iranian regime falls in 2026? → ( poly.market/aZ3axzr )

Quick Links

Follow all Iran polymarkets → ( poly.market/YxByDCg )

Top news image

Grudge match

Anti-establishment Dem Abdul El-Sayed heads into the August 4 Senate primary as the heavy favorite. He has accused his rival Dem, Haley Stevens, of voting to "fund and thank ICE."

Watch now → ( www.youtube.com/watch?si=733Z7v_qdefVa…e=youtu.be )Top news image

Clarity denied?

Odds for the crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," to be enacted hit 82% this year but have been trending down in recent weeks amid Senate stalling.

Check odds → ( poly.market/Va07dns )Top news image

Skubal trade when?

Tarik Skubal, the most coveted pitcher on MLB's trade block, says he wants to stay with Detroit through Aug. 3's deadline -but traders don't exactly think the Tigers are playoff-bound, which could have this lefty on the move.

Check odds → ( poly.market/4LdJ5aX )

Breaking NewsOdds

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?

View market →

42%
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-38%
---- ( poly.market/w1EzOIi )Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

View market →

41%
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+16%
---- ( poly.market/9rzHVuD )Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

View market →

62%
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+10%
---- ( poly.market/jMKPjJ4 )See all Breaking → ( poly.market/KuGRQLY )

Ending SoonEnds In

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?

13h
--- ( poly.market/8BwS1NF )See all Ending Soon → ( poly.market/1Bl3JVd )

NewListed

Who will be evicted from Big Brother? (Week 3)

8h ago
------ ( poly.market/AUIA3JB )Guinea-Bissau Constitutional Referendum

11h ago
------- ( poly.market/4SaQAJE )Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day?

11h ago
------- ( poly.market/g6WhfTn )See all New → ( poly.market/ucpggVq )

Hot Polymarkets24H Volume

Fed Decision in July?

$2.51M
------ ( poly.market/zCOWrtm )Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$360.5K
------- ( poly.market/EjscPKt )Next Claude Opus released by...?

$307.1K
------- ( poly.market/3SHCzLL )See all Hot Polymarkets → ( poly.market/PaXlbwI )

Top SportsStarts In

NBA: LeBron James Next Team

98d
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$1.79M ( poly.market/f8aq6gW )World Cup Final: U.S. Viewership

13h
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$536.4K ( poly.market/tP0yR1u )NBA: 2027 Champion

341d
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$428.9K ( poly.market/TstLRkP )See all Top Sports → ( poly.market/kGrAkZG )

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Last Word
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Platner Multiverse

A series of devastating allegations sank the campaign of Maine's Democratic nominee Graham Platner - but Dems' odds of winning went up. The hidden math inside every Polymarket contract explains why.